For both D’s and R’s 25% vote the party line no matter who runs. 15% likely do the same but aren’t as motivated. The last 20% usually make the decision on who wins and they are the problem. The trouble, as I see it, for the D’s is by the time of the election all the Clinton crap from the past will be new news to new voters and will make it hard for them to get the 20% much less the 15%. That’s why I think she won’t be the nominee. The D’s will find another Obama to beat her in the primaries and give them a sporting chance in 16.
25% Vote Democrat always
15% Vote Democrat usually
25% Vote Republican always
15% Vote Republican usually
20% Vote for whatever sign they see last and are the fickle thorn in every politicians side, but they make the decision about who wins.
Hillary has a whole lot of baggage and if I was a dem pol I sure wouldn't want to spend my time trying to get (re)elected by making excuses for her. Whoever is at the top of the ticket either brings up or drives down the whole party. Hillary's support now is before all the crap about her surfaces again and before the Republicans settle on a candidate. Right now she polls better than the 20 some odd reps but that won't last and the boys in the back room, the ones with the money to finance the election and the ones who stand to lose the most if the dems lose and they don't want to lose. I don't think Hillary will win no matter who the reps put up. But, having said that I don't think it's wise to underestimate the Clintons.